Why Littlefinger Believed Stannis Would Defeat the Boltons

In the tumultuous world of Game of Thrones, Lord Petyr Baelish, known as Littlefinger, had his own strategic plans that often leaned towards manipulation and backstabbing. One of his oft-discussed theories was the belief that Stannis Baratheon would emerge victorious against the Boltons, a notion that was seemingly far-fetched but had some underlying logic.

Stannis' Military Strength

Stannis Baratheon was a formidable leader, renowned for his disciplined army and his strategic prowess. He had a reputation for being a capable military commander, having successfully laid siege to the Wall and fought in numerous battles. His army, while not the largest, was battle-hardened and well-trained. This gave Stannis a significant edge over his adversaries.

Strategic Position

Logistically, Stannis was positioned to attack Winterfell, the stronghold of the Boltons. His army was well-armed and resourced, making it possible for him to mount a serious challenge against the Boltons. Winterfell, being a critical stronghold, was a target that Stannis deemed worthy of his attention. The Boltons, having taken the throne through treachery, were seen by many as illegitimate rulers, further complicating their defense.

Political Instability

Littlefinger anticipated that Stannis might rally support from the Northern houses that opposed the Boltons, particularly those loyal to the Stark family. This potential alliance could have shifted the balance of power in Stannis' favor. Additionally, the general discontent with the Boltons among the people of the North could have been a significant factor in rallying support for Stannis. The Boltons' reputation as usurpers, having taken Winterfell through deceit, created an environment ripe for rebellion.

Personal Ambitions

Beyond the strategic advantages, Littlefinger had his own motives for wanting Stannis to succeed. He aimed to manipulate the political landscape to his own advantage, positioning himself as a key player in the power struggles of Westeros. Littlefinger’s plan was rooted in a combination of Stannis's military capabilities, potential political alliances, and the general discontent towards the Boltons in the North.

Stannis' Determination and Strategy

In a pivotal released chapter from A Storm of Swords, Stannis Baratheon expresses his confidence in his military strategy. He declares: “Angry foes do not concern me. Anger makes men stupid and Hosteen Frey was stupid to begin with if half of what I have heard of him is true. Let him come.”

Unbeknownst to Littlefinger and Stannis, the plan they had meticulously laid out would be undermined by unforeseen circumstances. A terrible blizzard trapped the southern army, Melisandre’s decision to burn Shireen alienated a lot of soldiers, and Ramsay Bolton launched a night attack that destroyed vital supplies. These events severely altered the course of the battle, demonstrating that even the best-laid plans can be derailed by unexpected factors.

This combination of factors—Stannis's military strength, strategic position, potential political alliances, and the general discontent towards the Boltons in the North—led Littlefinger to believe that Stannis had a better chance of defeating the Boltons. However, it is important to note that events often have a way of defying even the most astute predictions.

In conclusion, Littlefinger’s northern plan made little sense in the grand scheme of things, but his belief in Stannis’s ability to triumph was not entirely unreasonable. The story of Game of Thrones teaches us that in warfare, as in life, many variables can change the outcome of events in a split second. Nevertheless, Littlefinger’s strategy, while flawed, was based on sound strategic principles that could have led to victory if not for the unforeseen events that ultimately altered the course of the battle.