The Unfolding of Middle-earth: What if Bard Had Not Slain Smaug?

In J.R.R. Tolkien's world of Middle-earth, Bard's crucial shot that felled Smaug holds a weighty significance. The impact of this event extends beyond the immediate fallout of the destruction of Lake-town, reshape the dynamics and futures of the various races and contribute to the broader struggle against darkness. Let's explore how the tale might have unfolded differently if Bard had not managed to kill Smaug.

The Destruction of Lake-town Esgaroth

If Bard's final shot had failed, Smaug would have returned to the Lonely Mountain, Erebor, with his full fury. This would have resulted in the destruction of Lake-town (Esgaroth) and the consequent collapse of its community. The loss of life would have been significant, and the once-prosperous settlement would have been reduced to ashes. The downfall of Lake-town would have had far-reaching implications for the Halflings (the Hobbits) and the Men living in that region.

Impact on the Dwarves

The dwarves, including Thorin Oakenshield and his company, would have faced a perilous situation. With Smaug firmly in control of the Lonely Mountain, reclaiming their homeland and retrieving their treasure would have been an insurmountable challenge. A prolonged conflict or possibly the dwarf clans' ultimate demise could have ensued. The absence of Bard's victory over Smaug means that the dwarves would have had to deal with an even more formidable foe, potentially leading to a more drawn-out and devastating conflict.

Rise of Darkness

The continued presence of Smaug would have been a powerful catalyst for chaos in the region. His insatiable greed and violent tendencies could have attracted other dark forces or creatures, exacerbating the instability in Middle-earth . This would have potentially aided Sauron's plans, making the struggle against the ultimate dark lord more dire. The Smaug would have served as a significant source of dread, ensuring that the Free Peoples of Middle-earth never truly felt a sense of security.

The Quest for the Arkenstone

The quest for the Arkenstone and the ensuing conflicts over the treasure would have taken a different course. Without Smaug's defeat, the treasure chest would not be the object of contention between the dwarves, elves, and men. The dynamics between these races would have been altered, and the quest for the Arkenstone would have had a different narrative arc, likely involving strategies beyond just Smaug's hoard.

Gandalf's Concerns

Gandalf, the counsel of the Free Peoples, was well aware of the larger threat posed by Sauron. Had Smaug continued to live, he could have become a substantial ally for Sauron. This would have complicated the struggle against the Dark Lord and potentially delayed the eventual confrontation. The presence of a powerful dragon would have added a new dimension to the already complex struggle, making the defeat of Sauron all the more challenging.

The Battle of the Five Armies

The events that led to the Battle of the Five Armies might have unfolded differently without Bard's victory. The alliances and conflicts among the races of Middle-earth would have been shaped by the ongoing threat of Smaug. The absence of Lake-town and the subsequent disruption of the Halflings' pursuit of Thorin's treasure could have led different factions to take sides in the battle. Azog and his army could have turned west and attacked the Elves in Mirkwood, leading to a confrontation that initially appears less relevant to the main protagonists but significantly alters the ecosystem of Middle-earth.

On the other hand, Rohan and Gondor would have been asked to send armies north to aid in the fight against Azog and the Dol Guldur forces. While the outcome might still result in a victory, it would come with heavy losses, potentially leading to the defeat of all Mirkwood Elves. This would have further compounded the struggle against darkness, as the loss of the Mirkwood elves would leave a significant gap in the free peoples' defense network.

In essence, Bard's slaying of Smaug, while significant, was a pivotal moment that not only impacted the immediate characters but also had broader implications for the fate of Middle-earth in the struggle against darkness. The absence of this event would have led to a different and more perilous timeline for the Free Peoples and the world of Middle-earth.