The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election: Narrow Victory, Voter Disenfranchisement, and Future Trends

The 2016 United States Presidential Election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump remains a complex issue. Even three years since the election, debates over the exact number of votes for each candidate continue, fueled by claims of voter fraud and disillusionment with the electoral results.

Exact Vote Count and Election Results

According to official election results, Hillary Clinton received 65,853,514 votes, while Donald Trump received 62,984,828 votes. This translates to a margin of 2.1 percentage points for Clinton among the popular vote.[1] However, Trump has continued to argue against these results, regularly denouncing Clinton as the victim of voter fraud. It's essential to note that there is no substantial evidence supporting such claims, and the majority of reliable sources, including the Federal Election Commission, confirm the official results.

Rapidly Changing Electoral Landscape

The close margin in the presidential election hinged on a strict count in three key states: Wisconsin (26,000 votes), Michigan (15,000 votes), and Pennsylvania (44,000 votes). These votes collectively secured the Electoral College victory for Trump, despite his performance in the popular vote.[2] Trump's victory by just 85,000 votes in these states was indeed a statistical fluke, especially given his nationwide loss by approximately 3 million votes.

Voter Disenfranchisement and Future Outlook

It's important to recognize that the 2016 election results also reflect a considerable portion of the American electorate that did not participate in the voting process. Out of a total of approximately 136 million registered voters, about 74 million did not vote at all. This means that only approximately 62 million individuals cast their ballots for either Clinton or Trump.[3] Additionally, third-party candidates garnered around 7 million votes. This scenario underscores a significant voter apathy, with Trump receiving support from a notably smaller segment of the population, a third of all registered voters.

The election outcome of 2016 can be seen as a mirror of broader issues in American society, such as the perception of voter suppression, political polarization, and the challenges of the Electoral College system. With 145 million eligible voters projected to vote in 2020, we might witness a shift in the dynamics, especially if Trump faces a divided electorate with fewer third-party splinter votes. On the other hand, Joe Biden could expect around 70 to 80 million votes, supporting a more straightforward electoral outcome without the reliance on a handful of marginal states.[4]

Conclusion

The 2016 U.S. presidential election highlights the tension between the popular vote and the Electoral College system. While Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly won the popular vote, Donald Trump secured the presidency through a narrow victory in a few key states, sparking debates around voter fraud and public trust in the democratic process. As our society continues to evolve, so will the landscape of American politics, with technological advancements and shifting social demographics likely to play crucial roles in future election outcomes.

References

Hardly, 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results, Federal Election Commission. Trump, D., 2017, 'Recount!' Comments on a routine recount request, Washington Post. Harris Interactive, 2019, U.S. Voter Turnout Estimations. BBC News, 2020, Explaining the U.S. Electoral College.