Swedish Democrats: The Limits of Growth and Future Prospects

The Swedish Democrats (SD) have been a topic of substantial debate and interest, particularly as they continue to grow their influence in Swedish politics. Whether the party will maintain this growth or reach a limit is a question that many are grappling with, especially in the context of upcoming elections. According to recent polls, the SD may see a slight increase, but not as significant as in previous years.

Public Sentiment and Voter Behavior

Personal observations and experiences indicate that around 20% of Swedes are openly racist and support the SD. This group constitutes a significant portion of the SD's voter base. However, it's important to note that not all the SD's support is based on racist ideology. Many voters appreciate the party's honesty and willingness to speak about issues that many Swedes feel strongly about, albeit in a blunt manner.

According to surveys, around 80% of the SD's current voters consistently state that they will never vote for them under any circumstances. This trend indicates that the party may have hit a peak in terms of its electoral support. Given that the SD's popularity is more pronounced among older voters, demographic changes alone are unlikely to significantly alter this dynamic.

The Potential for Growth

One factor that could potentially increase the SD's proportion of the vote without a significant change in their actual number of votes is the increased abstention rate. If more voters choose to not participate in the election, the SD's percentage could rise even if their base remains stable. This scenario highlights the complex interplay between voter turnout and party performance.

The Role of Anti-EU Sentiment

The SD's growth is closely linked to its anti-European Union stance. As long as influential individuals like Junker Verhofstadt and Barmier continue to run Sweden in a way that fosters anti-EU sentiment, the SD's appeal is likely to persist. The likelihood of anti-EU parties growing is a significant factor in the Swedish political landscape.

Internal Party Dynamics and Elections

The internal power struggles and alliances within the Social Democrats and the neo-liberal Moderaterna will play a crucial role in the upcoming elections. Both parties have lost voters to the SD and have their own concerned parties regarding immigration and integration policies. Alliances with extreme open borders parties have further complicated the political terrain. These internal dynamics are likely to determine the outcome of the elections more than any external factors.

Based on current trends, it's reasonable to expect the SD to secure between 18% and 25% of the vote. This would place them as the second or third largest party in parliament. However, what's truly interesting in the Swedish political context is the internal power games within the Social Democrats and Moderaterna, which reflect broader societal shifts and challenges in governance.