British Politics and the Coming Tory Leadership Contest: Who Will Outmaneuver Theresa May?

As the curtain rises on the Tory leadership contest, the question looms: who will be the minister to oust and take over from Theresa May? With the fragile balance between Brexit supporters and remainers, along with the divided Tory party, the answer is far from clear.

Early Favorites to Triumph

Amidst the speculation, two names stand out: Boris Johnson and Priti Patel. However, the dynamic between these candidates adds an additional layer of complexity. If Amber Rudd aligns with Boris Johnson as his running mate, it could potentially garner support from both sides of the Brexit debate. Yet, Johnson's self-proclaimed status as a proponent of a 'hard Brexit' may not resonate with all Tory members, raising questions about the ultimate success of this pairing.

Priti Patel, despite showcasing Tory principles such as advocating for tax cuts, has also suggested expanding parental leave, a stance that might alienate some of her own supporters. Other contenders like Andrea Leadsom and Sajid Javid are not seen as strong enough, with Leadsom lacking gravitas and Javid not having sufficient experience. This leaves a void, potentially opening the door for other candidates, but Boris Johnson's moniker has already garnered the mispronunciation of his name, which might harm his candidacy.

Ultimately, the landscape of the race is tumultuous, teetering on the edge of the best of a bad bunch. One can only hope it is Boris, who many hold in high esteem and believe could comprehend the complexities of the situation.

Against International Scrutiny

The Tory party's choice of the next Prime Minister will carry significant weight in negotiations with EU countries. Historically, the party has favored a belligerent individual who can assert dominance in these talks. However, this approach is counterintuitive. In today's interconnected world, belligerence is more likely to antagonize than negotiate.

To frame the discussion, understanding the Tory leadership contest is crucial. The first round sees Tory MPs select the finalists, while the second round is decided by a vote among the 100,000 strong Tory members. Logically, Brexit favoring candidates are the frontrunners, as May's tenure was marked by discontent over her handling of Brexit negotiations. Nevertheless, the Tory party is divided, with many members desiring a soft Brexit or even a continued EU membership, making it uncertain that the ultimate winners will be those most aligned with Brexit hardliners.

The final stages, however, are where the rhetoric may shift. With the rising tide of Euroscepticism among party members, another Remainer could struggle, but with a pro-Brexit candidate likely to prevail in a final showdown. The deadlock, however, means that the remaining contenders are likely to be Leavers, ensuring the end result maintains the Brexit agenda.

My personal sentiment aligns with the belief that a pragmatic candidate who can navigate the nuances of Brexit negotiations will be the winner, but the process promises to be anything but straightforward.