BJP's Strategy to Gain More Seats in Tamil Nadu and Kerala: A Feasibility Analysis

As we approach the 2019 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces significant challenges in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. These states have historically been challenging for the BJP, with formidable regional parties commanding substantial support. However, the BJP must devise a strategic approach to gather more support in these regions. This article evaluates the current political landscape and proposes feasible strategies for the BJP.

Current Political Scenario in Kerala

As of now, the BJP has no realistic chance in Kerala, where they have managed to secure fewer than two seats in legislative elections. The demographic and political divide in the state is stark. Approximately 27% of Kerala's population is Muslim, with the majority living in the northern part of the state, which is a stronghold of the Muslim League (an ally of the Congress). The remaining population is mainly composed of strongholds of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM).

The northern part of Kerala contains the constituency of Manjeswaram, which offers the BJP a marginal opportunity for victory. This is the only area where the BJP might see a small margin of success. Meanwhile, the central and southern parts of the state are strongholds of the Congress and the CPM, making it extremely unlikely for the BJP to win a single seat in these regions.

The BJP has a 90% chance of not even winning a single seat in the Kerala legislative assembly. Around 10% of the votes are neutral, which could ultimately decide between the Congress and the CPM. The Lok Sabha elections further highlight the BJP's struggle in Kerala, with no significant presence.

Strategies for BJP in Kerala

For the BJP to make inroads in Kerala, the party must focus on uniting the Ezhava community, who make up 27% of Kerala's Hindu population, and who are currently the voting base of the CPM. The BJP must work on dispelling the myths and conspiracy theories propagated by the CPM about Hindi education and religious tolerance. By highlighting the benefits of Hindu cultural preservation and secular governance, the BJP could potentially prise away some votes from the CPM.

Additionally, the BJP should not ignore the Christian and Muslim communities. Engagement with these communities, addressing their concerns, and promoting inclusive policies could help to garner additional support. However, it is essential for the BJP to approach these communities with sensitivity and respect, as they have shown historical loyalty to other parties.

Challenges in Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu is currently under the control of Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which came to power in 1967. The DMK's success can be attributed to their opposition to Hindi as the official language and their distribution of rice at low rates when poverty and famine were prevalent. However, the leadership and ideology of the party have evolved over time.

The current Chief Minister, M K Stalin, is perceived as corrupt and misrule. He continues to denigrate Hinduism and spread venom against Hindus, further polarizing the political environment. As a result, the majority of Tamil Nadu's Hindu population is divided along caste lines, with specific castes being targeted by the DMK. Brahmins, who form the foundation of Hindu religious practices, have gradually migrated to the USA or other states.

The DMK has taken steps to reduce foreign aid and support towards Christian missionary activities, which has made them less effective in conversion efforts. However, the DMK is deeply entrenched in local political and economic activities, making it challenging for the BJP to displace them.

Strategies for BJP in Tamil Nadu

The BJP must address the historical and cultural roots of Tamil Nadu to gain traction. Highlighting their commitment to upholding Hindu traditions and promoting secular governance could be a strong message. The BJP must also engage with the Ezhava community, who form the largest vote bank for the DMK, and work on convincing them of the benefits of BJP's policies.

The BJP should also consider emphasizing the importance of foreign investments and economic development. By offering a vision for a prosperous future, the BJP can appeal to the Ezhava and general Hindu population, who value economic stability and growth.

Conclusion

The prospects for the BJP in Tamil Nadu and Kerala are slim but not impossible. By focusing on community engagement, addressing historical narratives, and offering a vision of progress and stability, the BJP can potentially make gains. However, the BJP must approach these challenges with a nuanced understanding of the local political dynamics and a willingness to adapt their strategies accordingly.