BJP Withdrawal of Support for PDP in Jammu and Kashmir: A Strategic Move for Political Advancement and Greater Control

Recently, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made a significant decision to withdraw its support for the People's Democratic Party (PDP) in the Jammu and Kashmir (JK) state, marking a shift in the political landscape of the region. This decision has been shaped by a range of political, security, and social considerations, aimed at addressing key concerns and aligning with the BJP's broader strategic goals.

Strategic Considerations Behind the Decision

According to two unnamed party leaders involved in formulating the BJP's Kashmir strategy, the decision to withdraw support is rooted in multiple factors. Chief among these is the BJP's desire to protect its core support base, particularly in Jammu, to avoid potential political costs at the national level in the run-up to the 2019 general elections. Additionally, there is a strategic calculus focused on enhancing internal security operations in both the state and across the border. Direct control through governor's rule is seen as a crucial step to achieve these objectives.

The BJP's Primary Concerns

The BJP has two primary concerns that drove its decision. First, there was a growing divergence between the BJP's and PDP's approaches to issues such as the scale and intensity of security operations. Mehbooba Mufti, the PDP leader, favored a more conciliatory approach towards Pakistan, including talks and reducing the intensity of security operations, while the BJP preferred a more aggressive stance.

Second, there were concerns about the growing unease among the BJP's nationalist constituency in Jammu and outside the state, who felt the party was becoming "soft" in its security approach. This concern was genuine, as the PDP's inability or unwillingness to address the activities of troublemakers across the border and within the state contributed to this sentiment.

The Need for Direct Control

The BJP's decision to withdraw support and move towards direct control through governor's rule is seen as a strategic move to address these concerns. According to the BJP leaders, governor's rule will provide the central political leadership with the necessary space to enhance security operations. This includes increased offensive actions both across the Line of Control and within the Valley to identify and eliminate troublemakers. The cessation of the ceasefire during Ramadan and post-Eid was a significant factor, as the BJP sought to define a more muscular approach to counter insurgent activities and improve security.

From a financial standpoint, the BJP ensures that Jammu and Kashmir receives adequate funds for development projects and maintains a balanced distribution of resources among the three regions: Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh. This is especially important as the previous government struggled to utilize a significant portion of the allocated funds.

Concluding Thoughts

The BJP's decision to withdraw support for PDP and implement governor's rule in Jammu and Kashmir is a multifaceted strategic move aimed at addressing security concerns, aligning with the party's nationalist base, and preparing the ground for better political outcomes in the 2019 general elections. The shift towards stronger central control reflects the BJP's determination to maintain a firm grip on the region and ensure that its security and political objectives are met.